Common sense problems that steelmaking must understand (3)
投稿日時: 2019-7-11 11:56
Recent fundamentals and core conflicts in the industry
Before the Spring Festival, the safety inspection of coal mines first made the industrial profits into a balanced state, which brought support to the short-term rise in the price of industrial coal coke. Then the mine disaster in the Vale caused the iron ore price to rise significantly, and further formed the cost end support for the steel price. In the historical resumption, each round of steel price increase will drive a relatively obvious relative income of the steel sector, and the steel price increase in this round can be divided into two parts: the pull from the cost end in the early stage, the later stage The price brought by the fundamentals of steel is self-driven. The middle time node we expect is in early March. Short-term iron ore mines will continue to be stronger due to the difficulty of tailings in the Vale, supporting the rise in steel prices.
2019H1 supply and demand structure measurement and price trend analysis
After the Spring Festival, it is expected that there will be a quarterly scale of supply and demand mismatch: from the recent tracking data, the national steel output has begun to decline, and the inventory accumulation rate is lower than the average of previous years. Superimposed on the short-term recovery of the recent export end and the resilience of downstream demand, the demand side is more difficult to see a significant decline. In the absence of significant production cuts in steel mills, this year's winter storage levels are expected to remain at the same level in 2016-2017. After the Spring Festival, with the opening of demand, the inventory is easier to go below the level of the same period of previous years, which has obvious support for the price and brings the mismatch market on the quarterly scale.
2019H1 steel price profit judgment
We judge that the overall steel price center will maintain the 2017 level in 2019. The first half of the year is expected to be stronger than the second half. In 2019, the overall profit is also expected to maintain the level of 500-700 yuan per ton.
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